Inching towards the panic button

If you had asked me one month ago to name the strongest component of the 2008 Red Sox, I wouldn’t have given it a second’s thought. The rotation, you idiot. We’s gots teh Buchholz and we’s gots teh Lester, we don’t need no stinking Santana!

Contrast that winter optimism to today, where if you asked me what the team’s strong point was, I’d say, “we have a strong point?”

Before you rush to any judgments on my character, let me clarify by saying that I pride myself in being a rational baseball fan 95% of the time. I rarely get caught up in media hype, I hate Tim McCarver, and I never panic during a losing skid (unless that losing skid comes in the first or last week of the season, or during the playoffs). So I do know that I’m being irrational right now, which in many ways is worse than not knowing it.

I feel like Edward Norton when he’s going to fight club for the first time. He knows that he’s about to do something that will cause him a tremendous amount of pain, but can’t stop himself so he just does it anyway. That’s me right now.

Let me give you an example of how messed up I am about this:

Last night I actually caught myself thinking, “I really hope Colon has a great outing this week because we need him.”

The logical part of my brain is telling me that it’s too early to be in panic mode. It’s telling me that spring training performance isn’t much of an indicator of anything, that we see more pitchers per 9 innings than we do in an All-Star game. But damnit, the regular season starts in two short weeks, our rotation is not looking good, and it’s never too early to be worried.

For the sake of making myself crazy(er), let’s go over what’s happened to our rotation since the start of spring training:

1. We learned that Schilling may never pitch again.

2. Lester, Buchholz and Matsuzaka look like they’re fighting for the final spot on the Boston College team the Red Sox pummeled last week.

3. Beckett hurt his back (Francona did say today that the injury is muscular in nature, which is good, but does nothing to extinguish my fears).

The lone bright spot at the moment is Tim Wakefield.

Now, I love Wake as much as anybody else, but when the best thing you can say about the present state of your rotation is that your 41-year-old knuckleballer is looking pretty solid in spring training, that isn’t exactly the highest level of flattery that you can bestow.

We’re going to be fine. Seriously. Beckett will be back within the week, Lester and Buchholz will get it together, and Dice-K will get his head on straight once the baby comes.

I want to believe.

Buchholz and Tavarez to battle for final spot?

John Farrell stated that now that Schilling is out indefinitely, the final spot in the rotation is up for grabs. “The two very clear candidates for that are Clay and Julian Tavarez. I think we can’t [forget to] recognize what Julian provided for us last year.”

He’s right about Tavarez. He may have saved the season with the 23 starts he made last year, as most of them were made when a regular starter was on the DL. His numbers weren’t always pretty, but he gave 5-6 innings a start and sometimes more. Between his starts and his bullpen work, he pitched more than 123 innings last season.

Tavarez’ value is his versatility. He can contribute to the team as a starter or a long reliever, so the optimum situation is to put him in a position where he can do both if needed. The Red Sox will put him in the bullpen as much as possible since that role provides them with the most flexibility—slotting him into the rotation full-time greatly reduces his value.

Of course, Buchholz’ value is solely as a starter.

The faster the Red Sox can get their pitchers into those roles, the better off they’ll be. I just don’t see how they can do that right out of the gate, given the innings limitations placed on Buchholz. 

Regardless of what Farrell says, I expect that the decision on the final rotation spot will be based primarily on what the Red Sox feel is best for Buchholz. This kid has the potential to be a future ace, and they’re going to baby him a bit. Because he’s a young pitcher, and because he had to be shut down at the end of 2007, the Red Sox have established an innings pitched limit of 180-190. If Buchholz stays healthy, that’s probably a full season minus a handful of starts.

It would make sense to start Buchholz in Pawtucket, give him a limit of a few innings per start, and let Tavarez start every fifth day for the first month of the season. Then they can pull Julian back into the bullpen, taking a turn in the rotation as needed, and let Buchholz pitch the rest of the season.