Inching towards the panic button

If you had asked me one month ago to name the strongest component of the 2008 Red Sox, I wouldn’t have given it a second’s thought. The rotation, you idiot. We’s gots teh Buchholz and we’s gots teh Lester, we don’t need no stinking Santana!

Contrast that winter optimism to today, where if you asked me what the team’s strong point was, I’d say, “we have a strong point?”

Before you rush to any judgments on my character, let me clarify by saying that I pride myself in being a rational baseball fan 95% of the time. I rarely get caught up in media hype, I hate Tim McCarver, and I never panic during a losing skid (unless that losing skid comes in the first or last week of the season, or during the playoffs). So I do know that I’m being irrational right now, which in many ways is worse than not knowing it.

I feel like Edward Norton when he’s going to fight club for the first time. He knows that he’s about to do something that will cause him a tremendous amount of pain, but can’t stop himself so he just does it anyway. That’s me right now.

Let me give you an example of how messed up I am about this:

Last night I actually caught myself thinking, “I really hope Colon has a great outing this week because we need him.”

The logical part of my brain is telling me that it’s too early to be in panic mode. It’s telling me that spring training performance isn’t much of an indicator of anything, that we see more pitchers per 9 innings than we do in an All-Star game. But damnit, the regular season starts in two short weeks, our rotation is not looking good, and it’s never too early to be worried.

For the sake of making myself crazy(er), let’s go over what’s happened to our rotation since the start of spring training:

1. We learned that Schilling may never pitch again.

2. Lester, Buchholz and Matsuzaka look like they’re fighting for the final spot on the Boston College team the Red Sox pummeled last week.

3. Beckett hurt his back (Francona did say today that the injury is muscular in nature, which is good, but does nothing to extinguish my fears).

The lone bright spot at the moment is Tim Wakefield.

Now, I love Wake as much as anybody else, but when the best thing you can say about the present state of your rotation is that your 41-year-old knuckleballer is looking pretty solid in spring training, that isn’t exactly the highest level of flattery that you can bestow.

We’re going to be fine. Seriously. Beckett will be back within the week, Lester and Buchholz will get it together, and Dice-K will get his head on straight once the baby comes.

I want to believe.

Wakefield cutting time off delivery

Like all knuckleballers, Tim Wakefield has always had a hard time keeping base runners honest.

Wakefield throws his knuckleball over 80% of the time, and it generally leaves his hand at less than 70 mph.

He only throws his fastball 15% of the time, and when he does, batters hit .325 against him. Add in the fact that his four seamer almost never tops 80 mph, and even Mirabelli could probably swipe a base off him.

To help keep the runners honest, Wakefield is trying to cut down his delivery time.

I don’t know how much of a difference it will make, but it doesn’t hurt to try. 1.4 seconds is still slow, even with Mirabelli’s rocket arm behind the plate.

Other soft tossers like Maddux have been able to somewhat compensate for their slow delivery time with pinpoint control, making it easier for their catchers to position their bodies for a throw. But a knuckleballer like Wakefield will never be a finesse pitcher, and Mirabelli will always be at a disadvantage.

Regardless, it speaks for Wakefield’s gamesmanship that he’s still trying to improve his game as he enters his 16th major league season.