Inching towards the panic button

If you had asked me one month ago to name the strongest component of the 2008 Red Sox, I wouldn’t have given it a second’s thought. The rotation, you idiot. We’s gots teh Buchholz and we’s gots teh Lester, we don’t need no stinking Santana!

Contrast that winter optimism to today, where if you asked me what the team’s strong point was, I’d say, “we have a strong point?”

Before you rush to any judgments on my character, let me clarify by saying that I pride myself in being a rational baseball fan 95% of the time. I rarely get caught up in media hype, I hate Tim McCarver, and I never panic during a losing skid (unless that losing skid comes in the first or last week of the season, or during the playoffs). So I do know that I’m being irrational right now, which in many ways is worse than not knowing it.

I feel like Edward Norton when he’s going to fight club for the first time. He knows that he’s about to do something that will cause him a tremendous amount of pain, but can’t stop himself so he just does it anyway. That’s me right now.

Let me give you an example of how messed up I am about this:

Last night I actually caught myself thinking, “I really hope Colon has a great outing this week because we need him.”

The logical part of my brain is telling me that it’s too early to be in panic mode. It’s telling me that spring training performance isn’t much of an indicator of anything, that we see more pitchers per 9 innings than we do in an All-Star game. But damnit, the regular season starts in two short weeks, our rotation is not looking good, and it’s never too early to be worried.

For the sake of making myself crazy(er), let’s go over what’s happened to our rotation since the start of spring training:

1. We learned that Schilling may never pitch again.

2. Lester, Buchholz and Matsuzaka look like they’re fighting for the final spot on the Boston College team the Red Sox pummeled last week.

3. Beckett hurt his back (Francona did say today that the injury is muscular in nature, which is good, but does nothing to extinguish my fears).

The lone bright spot at the moment is Tim Wakefield.

Now, I love Wake as much as anybody else, but when the best thing you can say about the present state of your rotation is that your 41-year-old knuckleballer is looking pretty solid in spring training, that isn’t exactly the highest level of flattery that you can bestow.

We’re going to be fine. Seriously. Beckett will be back within the week, Lester and Buchholz will get it together, and Dice-K will get his head on straight once the baby comes.

I want to believe.

White Sox: No record of Schilling surgery

After checking through the medical records for their past and present major and minor league players, the White Sox believe that “none of their players, either on the major league or minor league level, has undergone the type of surgical procedure Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling believes he needs to keep pitching.”

Tony Romeo, a member of the White Sox medical staff, had previously stated that he’d performed the surgery on at least two pitchers in their minor league system, but he refused to provide the Red Sox with names.

Now that his claims have been discounted, it appears that no professional baseball player has ever had the type of surgery that Dr. Morgan recommended.

Looks like a good call by the Red Sox to go with the rehab route…

State of Schilling’s shoulder no secret to Red Sox

Curt Schilling made a blog entry tonight that adds some additional insight to the timetable of his injury and recovery.

Apparently Schilling and the team have known about the injury for “three months now.” He maintains that “The Red Sox were never in the dark and knew the first day there were problems.”

If true, Kudos to everyone involved for keeping that news quiet for that much time—the Yankees (or worse yet, Red Sox) might have Santana right now if that info was leaked.

Interestingly, the tone in Schilling’s blog entry feels more positive than it was the last time we heard from him. Maybe that’s just what happens when you can edit yourself before your words hit the press, or maybe it signals a new willingness to toe the company line and play down the drama. Or hell, maybe it means actual acceptance.

Whereas yesterday he said that “I don’t have a choice” in reference to the club’s rehabilitation plans, today he took a more passive approach. “I am rehabbing and doing everything possible to get healthy and pitch again. Were there disagreements? Sure. Does that matter now? Absolutely not. The course of action has been laid out and I am dead set on making this work.”

Schilling obviously understands the financial impact that his injury had on the team—and how couldn’t he? “At the moment they are out 8 million dollars for a guy that cannot pitch, that can’t be a good thing,” Schilling wrote. “I’d bet that I’ll figure out some way to validate this entire thing when it’s all said and done. If you don’t like that, or believe that, then feel free to bet against me, it won’t be the first time.”

He goes on to make the type of prophetic statement that makes Schilling who he is, saying that he “will pitch again, and win.”

Not bad, but how about this one (my words): “I will pitch again, and win, and make 50,000 Yankee fans shut up.”

Schilling breaks silence: Talks about his shoulder

Curt Schilling spoke to a group of reporters this morning, ending his spring training silence.

He said that he notified the team that something wasn’t right with his arm long before the press caught hold of it, but everyone involved kept quiet with the Santana trade on the table.

“I actually reached out to Theo when the Santana thing came out because I knew I was not in a good situation and I knew if we started to poke around medically word might get out and I didn’t know how much interest there was on our behalf. I didn’t want to put him in a disadvantage, a leverage situation disadvantage. So I reached out to him very quickly to John Farrell and to Tito and told them I was very concerned and didn’t want that to mess up their discussions with the Twins.”

He responded to the fans and members of the media who suggested that he knew he was hurt before he signed the $8 million contract.

“Let’s be clear, if some people want to believe this was me taking advantage of the situation financially I wouldn’t have done it here. I would have done it in at least two other places for $14 million. If I was going to sit my ass on the DL and collect a paycheck. I know that for a fact. People are going to believe what they believe. I was healthy at the time. I didn’t feel great, but I felt like I was 40 or 41.”

Though Schilling clearly sides with Dr. Morgan and disagrees with the team’s rehabilitation plans, he’s promised to dedicate himself to the process.

“If their course of action doesn’t work I don’t pitch this year, and I may never pitch again. I don’t have a choice. I have to mentally get behind it and do everything I can do to make it work. It certainly isn’t the best spot to be in. When you here 5 and 10 percent and never pitch again and those things. I’m disappointed that after 21 years my career might end like this. But it is what it is. And if I never pitch again, as disappointing as it may be, I have no regrets about everything that I’ve been able to experience.”

He said that he was silent for the first part of spring training not because of any problems with the front office, but because he didn’t want to take anything away from the team.

“I don’t want to be a distraction. It’s one of the reasons I put this part of it off because the goal to be defending world champs and win the World Series. I don’t want to screw that up. There are so many great stories, and so many good things going on here. I don’t want this to impede any of that.”

Schilling concedes that he will need to have surgery at some point, whether it comes before or after his baseball career ends.

“I will have to have the biceps procedure at some point in the very near future in my life if I want to live a pain-free, normal life.”

Red Sox did not insure Schilling’s contract

The Red Sox didn’t insure Curt Schilling’s 2008 contract.

Before a contract was offered to Schilling, the medical staff suspected that his shoulder was in bad enough shape that he wouldn’t be able to pitch a full season.

They “initially proposed that he sign a half-season contract much like the ones Roger Clemens has had the last couple of seasons.” They also “either raised red flags about re-signing him or recommended outright that he not be brought back.”

Clearly the club suspected that they wouldn’t get a whole lot out of Schilling in 2008, and I’m sure they at least explored an insurance policy.

Maybe he isn’t insurable at this point in his career, or maybe the premium wasn’t worth the risk

Regardless, I’m a bit surprised that they didn’t have some kind of protection seeing as they didn’t exactly have high expectations for his health. 50% coverage on a one-year $8 million contract wouldn’t be a huge gamble for an insurance company as far as these things go. I mean, nobody would have expected in November that he wouldn’t pitch at all.

Schilling gets cortisone shot, plans to go without surgery

Curt Schilling has decided to comply with the Red Sox’ wishes and rehab his shoulder without surgery.

“After being diagnosed by the Red Sox medical staff I sought a second opinion, as anyone would, and when it became clear there was disagreement (which is not uncommon by the way), I agreed to see an independent Doctor from a list the Red Sox provided me, for the third opinion.

“At this time I have agreed to abide with the clubs wishes in hopes that will provide the results they believe it will.”

Schilling is scheduled to receive a cortisone shot today as the first step in his rehabilitation. If he responds well to the cortisone shot, then the Red Sox will probably decide to move forward with their rehabilitation program. If he is still in excruciating pain a week from now, I’d imagine that surgery will have to be reconsidered.

After hearing Dr. Morgan speak about Schilling’s shoulder, I’m less optimistic that this thing can be resolved without surgery. Schilling was resting his arm for most of the offseason, but noticed a dramatic increase in pain when he started his offseason throwing program in January.

“And by dramatic, he told me he could throw a ball five feet. By dramatic, I mean this guy’s got pain opening a door. He was not able to complete all of the positions that were requested for his MRI on Jan. 24 because he couldn’t put his arm above his head and hold it there without excruciating pain—that’s what we’re talking about here.”

He gives the Red Sox’ rehabilitation recommendations no chance to succeed, and describes the injury as degeneration of his biceps tendon. The Red Sox’ doctors also noticed “a thickening of the rotator cuff and some fraying of the labrum.”

Dr. Morgan doesn’t see how the injury can improve without surgery. “I think his chances of that [Red Sox rehab recommendations] being successful to the point where he can rehab, get stronger, and become pain-free to be able pitch effectively are near zero.”

The Red Sox believe that any surgery would keep Schilling out of baseball for the entire season, while Morgan is more optimistic. He believes that he could be back by the All-Star break.

Early reports that the Red Sox tried to void Schilling’s contract now appear to be over-stated. The club has threatened to take that action only if Schilling has surgery without permission.

Schilling’s injury is serious: Red Sox tried to void contract

On XM radio today, it was said that Schilling’s doctor is recommending that he have surgery to repair damage to his shoulder. The Red Sox of course do not want him to take that route, seeing as they’re paying him $8 million for one year of service and would get no return on their investment if he spends the season rehabbing his arm.

The Boston Herald reported that the injury is believed to be to either his rotator cuff or labrum. If true, Schilling would presumably miss most, if not all of 2008.

The Red Sox attempted to void his contract because of a disagreement over whether he needs surgery.

It will be interesting to hear how long he has known about this injury, and whether he withheld any information from the club.

If this really is going to be his last year in baseball, I wouldn’t be surprised if Schilling decided just to hang up his cleats. It wouldn’t make a lot of sense for him to spend six months getting his arm back into pitching shape, when there may not even be a spot in the rotation for him come September.

Hopefully this thing doesn’t get too nasty before it comes to a resolution. 

Schilling won’t be ready for spring training

Curt Schilling is experiencing shoulder issues, and won’t be ready for the start of spring training.

This is presumably the same shoulder issue (tendinitis, if the Red Sox are to be believed) that sent him to the disabled list in 2007.

Though it’s still possible that Schilling will be available on Opening Day, it seems unlikely at this point.

Schilling’s aching shoulder may have just punched Buchholz’s ticket into the starting rotation.

Age and injury: How Schilling has adapted

I’ve been working with the Gameday pitch f/x data for a little while now, and thanks to a considerable amount of help from Joe Sheehan at Baseball Prospectus, I have enough tools to take a stab at some analysis.

We heard a lot about how Curt Schilling changed his approach after he was sidelined with a shoulder injury in the middle of the 2007 season. McCarver gushed about Schilling’s reinvention all through the ALCS and World Series, and I heard a good number of fans compare him to Jamie Moyer as a power pitcher who had to reinvent himself as he got older and lost some power. However, I never really heard anyone explain exactly how Schilling had adjusted his pitch selection and I thought it would be interesting to see exactly what he did.

The following scatter plot details the break of Schilling’s pitches from his one-hitter on 6/7/2007 at Oakland. Advanced Gameday was just being rolled out in the early part of the season, and most of games that were recorded contain some suspect data. Thankfully, this start looks like vintage Schilling, and it happens to be a performance where he was at his very best. It should serve as a good point of comparison.

The red and orange points in the top left are his fastballs. The blue points hanging off that cluster are his changeups, and the blue points at the bottom right are curveballs.

The red cluster in the center is sliders, and the greens hanging off it are sliders thrown at a slightly slower speed. The rest of the green points are splitters, though it’s possible a few changeups could be mixed in as well.

You can see that Schilling threw a balanced assortment of pitches. He relied most heavily on the fastball and splitter, and kept hitters off-balance with a mix of curves, changeups and sliders.

Now let’s look at his start on 8/6, which was his first start after returning from the DL.

His pitch selection is pretty similar to his 1-hitter on 6/7, though it does appear that he threw a few less fastballs and more curves.

Now let’s see how his approach compares to his 8/24 start at the White Sox, which was arguably his most effective post-shoulder injury start (6 IP, 3H, 1R, 1BB, 3K).

You probably noticed some major differences right away.

First, Schilling only threw a handful of splitters. The splitter is notoriously strenuous on a pitcher’s shoulder, so it isn’t a big shock that he put it on the shelf for a game following his shoulder injury. However, the splitter is the pitch that I’ve come to identify with Schilling over the years, so I’m impressed that he was able to put up pretty good numbers without using it much.

The second big thing that you’ll notice is Schilling’s big drop in velocity. While he still got his fastball up in the nineties at times, there are a lot more fastballs in the 85-89 range than there were in his 6/7 start. His changeups naturally diminished in terms of velocity as well, dropping from blue in June to green in August. That wasn’t a problem though, as it’s the variance between the fastball and change—rather than the speed—that makes the changeup effective.

The third thing that you’ll notice is that where old Schilling seemed to handle his strategy pitch to pitch, new Schilling seems to strategize on more of a start to start basis.

Check out his start on 9/25.

Look at all those curveballs! The splitter is back in a big way as well.

Now here’s his 10/7 start:

Here he threw an absolute crapload of fastballs and a lot of splits, but very few curveballs and only a small handful of sliders.

Because of his injury, Schilling probably couldn’t throw as many breaking pitches as he used to throw. So rather than throwing a balanced variety of pitches each game, he rotated pitch selection from game to game, focusing on 2-3 different pitches per game and using the others to keep hitters on their toes.

The one commonality between all of the post-injury starts is that his power noticeably diminished from his start in June. I know I’m not exactly unearthing some great unknown when I say he lost some power—that was evident to anybody who watched the games. But how much did he lose? Let’s take a look at a histogram.

The histogram above measures the number of pitches Schilling threw within each speed range on 6/7/07. There’s an impressively even balance in the 80-95 mph range that covers his fastballs, sliders and splitters. He also made consistent use of his curves and changeups (70-79 mph).

Now let’s compare that approach to his approach in his 8/6 start:

The drop in velocity is very noticeable here. It looks like he only hit 90 mph five times.

Schilling definitely altered his gameplan from game to game, but did he make any mechanical adjustments? Let’s take a look at his release points for 6/7 and 8/24, the two games where the strategies appear to vary the most.

At first glance, it appears that there is a pretty big difference in his release points (roughly half a foot vertically). But given the calibration issues with the release points between stadiums, the variance isn’t large enough to raise any red flags.

According to Baseball Analysts, the average release point for Oakland pitchers at home was 6.06. For White Sox pitchers at home it was 5.61. Those numbers are consistent with what we’re seeing here, and likely explain the half foot variance.

It will be interesting to see whether Schilling’s strategic adjustments carry over into 2008. I’ll revisit the topic once we have a few games of data in the new season.

Schilling sponsors 38-hour game development marathon

Curt Schilling’s game studio is sponsoring a 38-hour game development marathon.

According to the press release, participants will have 38 hours to create a playable video game featuring the 38 Studios mascot and his alter ego, Mean Munch. 

The contest started last night at 7:00 PM and runs through 9:00 Sunday morning.

If I were a game developer, I would attend this event and make a game called “Put a Bloody Sock in It.” The game would be a lot like “Where in the World is Carmen Sandiego,” except you’d have to track Schilling across the globe and stop him before he makes his next blog post. Once you find him, you’d have the ability to shove a bloody sock in his mouth to keep him from saying (or posting) anything he’ll later regret.

The grand prize is $3,000 to each winning team member.

2nd prize is $2,000 each.

3rd prize is $1,000 each.

Not a bad haul.

Curt Schilling loses a mentor in Johnny Podres

Johnny Podres, a great pitcher made legendary for shutting down the Yankees in game 7 of the 1955 World Series, died Sunday in Glenn Falls, New York.

Podres played in the Major Leagues for 16 seasons, earning a well-deserved reputation as a big-game pitcher. In six World Series starts for the Dodgers he pitched 38.1 innings while posting a 4-1 record and a 2.11 ERA.

He later found his way into coaching.

Podres began his role as the pitching coach for the Phillies in 1991, where he worked with Curt Schilling from 1992 through 1996.

Podres did the things every pitching coach does – he helped Schilling with his mechanics and the development of his four-seam fastball. But he also did something that few opposing batters have ever been able to do:

He got inside Schilling’s head.

“He made me realize the only limits in my life were self imposed, that pushing yourself mentally and physically were what separated players when they crossed the white line.

“We spoke often about ‘big games’ and he instilled this belief in me, even before I had a chance to pitch in a truly big game, that when the time came I’d answer the bell. The post season success I’ve been blessed to enjoy I’ve always known to be a direct result of who and what he was.”

John Kruk so thoroughly enjoyed the mind games Podres played on his pitching staff that he would come to the mound from first base whenever he made a mound visit—just to hear what he was saying.

“We might have had a pitcher on the mound who was getting lit up and Johnny would come out and say, ‘You’ve got great stuff. I don’t know how they are hitting you. Just go get them.’ Another time he came out, ‘Jimmy [Fregosi] is getting [mad] at me because you aren’t throwing strikes. You know I don’t like it when he gets mad at me. Throw strikes.”

Mitch “Wild Thing” Williams, one of the most feared closers in the game for a time, echoed those sentiments.

“He was the only one that dealt with the mental side of the game, the most positive person and, again, hands down the best pitching coach I ever pitched for.”

Like many men, Podres loved to drink, smoke, and gamble. But his legacy will be his love of his family, his players, and the game of baseball. 

Schilling speaks out on Mitchell Report (again)

Curt Schilling believes that Roger Clemens should forfeit his last four Cy Young awards if he can’t clear his name.

“...As a fan my thought is that Roger will find a way in short order to organize a legal team to guarantee a retraction of the allegations made, a public apology is made, and his name is completely cleared. If he doesn’t do that then there aren’t many options as a fan for me other than to believe his career 192 wins and 3 Cy Youngs he won prior to 1997 were the end. From that point on the numbers were attained through using PED’s. Just like I stated about Jose, if that is the case with Roger, the 4 Cy Youngs should go to the rightful winners and the numbers should go away if he cannot refute the accusations.”

Look, McNamee is never going to say of Clemens, “I’m sorry, I made that up.” Even if it were a true statement, it would blow his deal with the Feds and he could end up serving a crap ton of jail time. Is he willing to do that? He doesn’t seem like a Greg Anderson, seeing as he’s already played the rat.

So what you’re left with if you’re Clemens (or anyone else accused) is proving your innocence. And that’s nearly impossible to do.

For example, let’s say I have in my hand a delicious donut. I say how delicious the donut is and offer you a piece. You tell me that you wouldn’t know if it was any good or not because you have never in your life eaten a donut. I don’t believe you, because everybody likes donuts. Then I ask you to prove that you have never had one.

You take offense to my disbelief, and dig up all your receipts and match them all up to your bank statements. But it still doesn’t prove anything except that you did not use money from your bank account to buy a donut.

Maybe I know for a fact that you spent the night at a hotel with a continental breakfast where donuts were freely available? Can you prove you didn’t eat one?

And what if someone says they saw you eating a donut? Can you prove that it wasn’t a donut, but a croissant? Or an English Muffin, perhaps? How can you possibly prove these things?

As far as I see it, the accused players only really have two options:

1. You can take the Pettitte route, admitting your guilt, and hope your apology is accepted in the public arena
2. You can take the Bonds route, maintaining your innocence, and knowing that nobody will ever believe you

Tough call.

Schilling crits you for 5,000. You die.

In a recent interview with Allakhazam.com, Curt Schilling confesses that he is a World of Warcraft junkie.

“I am a hopelessly hooked World of Warcraft player now.”

I too have been hopelessly hooked on World of Warcraft (ok, I still am), so I know a thing or two about it. And I will tell you this, with absolute certainty:

If I were Theo, there would be a “no World of Warcraft during the offseason” clause in Schilling’s contract, with a bonus of 30,000 gold and an epic flying mount payable the first day of spring training.

If there’s one thing you don’t need when you’re trying to get in shape, it’s a hopelessly addicting game that rewards you for sitting motionless in your chair for 6-10 hours at a time while drinking beer and eating cookies.

One thing to remember, Curt: leveling your “thrown” skill doesn’t count as arm conditioning.